Unfortunately he won't win the Oscar.
Why?
Because it has nothing to do with art, only with business.
If the Oscar was something a little more serious, Morricone would have been nominated for MALENA, MISSION TO MARS, VATEL and CANONE INVERSO. This four scores are far better than any of the others nominated!

It may actually deserve an Oscar, but that is meaningless in the context of the politics and voting choices of the members.

I'd love to see it go to Ennio, but, if Morricone wins, it'll probably be as a lifetime achievement thing over the merits of this individual score. But that can't always be counted on either.

Rocco thinks that the Academy will go academic as it did last year for John Corigliano and award a concert composer the prize, namely Tan Dun. And it's tough to disagree with the learned one.

However, the Academy went Italian the two years before, awarding both Luis Bacalov and Nicola Piovani Oscars. Some may vote saying, how could these guys win and not Ennio. Others may say, not another Italian guy.

Also, I don't know who distributes Malena, but that could be a factor too. If both Chocolat and Malena are Miramax titles, M may want to get Malena some award or try to get Chocolat as many awards as possible while letting Malena fall.